Sunday, May 24, 2009

Thought on 陳菊's Visit to China

Looking around a bit and watching those talk show I think this piece is the most well written since it touches on and evaluate most of the aspect of the visit, and I think most rational people would agree that in this visit, China wins, DPP does not win, and KMT lost.

As the article mentioned, China wins simply because its government can manipulate and censor the media. A local governor of Taiwan visiting Beijing is very easily manipulated to a local governor of "China" visiting Beijing. Certainly to the average Chinese citizens, the DPP of Taiwan has kowtowed to the their central government. CCP's seat of power of course looks more stable than ever, even during the economic darker time.

Those that think that 陳菊 strikes a blow to China by announcing ROC sovereignty in China are being too naive I think. Here is my reasoning:
  • China does not care if you call yourself ROC or not, especially if you are in China. Because to them ROC and PRC are both concept of a China that has Taiwan as part of it. Certainly, it does not matter to CCP if PRC just change their name to ROC, as long as CCP is still in power.
  • Media censorship can prevent any manifestation of this declaration. But even if there are no censorship, due to 陳菊's status as a mayor, what 陳菊 said really does not matter. The media manipulation is just there to give CCP a popularity contest boost.
To the KMT, I think this is a gigantic blow. Now it almost looks like they have been side lined. Certainly what they did in the past few years looks very cowardly and naive. It definitely looks like they have lost the ROC standard. They only use this ROC title domestically now to rally those who is foolish enough to still support them.

To the DPP I think it is not too big of a deal. The visit did not stray away from the current DPP doctrine. However, I think the current DPP doctrine can only achieve "status quo" and cannot achieve full independence from ROC and PRC...this DPP has to keep in mind and be flexible to change its doctrine, in order to achieve its goal. Of course, it is best to have another strong TI political party to keep DPP in check, but right now the KMT is still too strong. KMT has to be marginalized first in order for another political party to exist...That just sounds very difficult lol. But who knows, future is very unpredictable, especially in Taiwan.

I think DPP needs to formulate its China policy of course. But during their formulation, they need to remember what their long term goal is. To take the ROC standard that has been thrown away by KMT might not be the wisest thing to do. It is best to be able to use a Taiwan standard and declare Taiwan sovereignty, not ROC sovereignty. Don't just act like some hero jumping into dragon's mouth. That is not true valour. First, know what the goal is, then evaluate if the goal is worthy. Only then should DPP take action. Especially to 呂秀蓮...I hope she knows what she is doing. Because it certainly sounds a bit like she is looking at this as some kind of fashion show.

This type of things I guess all pan green supporters will keep watching and observe the development. Of course most people have no doubt about DPP's loyalty to Taiwan, but if DPP is foolish and naive, its loyalty to the TI cause does not matter.

UPDATE: Another very interesting view on this - LINK This view is more negative, but I find its view also very reasonable. It indeed looks kind of foolish that DPP has picked up the ROC standard that KMT has thrown away. Indeed there is no wonder that the pan blue media gave her all the praise and the Beijing Mayor is all smiling, because all of these is within their "perimeter." It's like a dog on a leash, it might bark a lot, but it still does nothing concrete. The only good thing is it has created some damage to the KMT, but I am sure even this damage is within CCP's calculation (and perhaps even KMT already predicted it). All I can say is...this is a real double edged sword, and if DPP only acts with blind sense of "fashion" or foolish "bravery," it will kill itself.

No comments:

Post a Comment