Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Interesting Graph

Graph in Chinese
Graph in English

Thanks BillyPan and Echo for uploading the graphs. It is actually very interesting...

First thing to note is all the survey number in the graph are done by pan-blue media (UND, TVBS and China Times). So the validity of it is questionable. Ma's actually support might be much lower, and Chen had 82% support? Was that even possible? I wonder if there are data from pan-green media which we can double check on this. Because I sense something fishy about this data.

The second thing to note is, as BillyPan observed, Chen's support was always higher than Ma's. This is actually kind of weird...because Ma had a landslide victory over Hsieh and got 70% of vote (if I remember correctly). In another word, he got more percentage of vote than Chen!!! Both Chen's elections was a huge struggle. The first one was even due to the division of KMT. The second one he only won by 0.228%. But the survey shows that Ma's support is already much lower than 70% one month after he took office...This is just kind of shocking...and what is the possible explanation? I think one possible reason is just that at least 20% of people who voted for him realized they have been hustled. It becomes clear Ma is not that good, and his economic policy was kind of BS.

The third thing that appear very interesting to me is...how the f**k did Chen get 82% of support after he took office? During election, fewer than 50% voted for him, but after election practically everyone supported him...how did this work? And then soon after the support slides down dramatically. I think this might be due to some economic issues. Not sure...

A lot of people said pan green is weak and losing support...but if we think about it, the pan green camp had at least 40% solid supporters. Even during legislator election, the pan-green got approximately 40% of votes. It's just because the way electoral area are drawn, only 27 DPP members got elected. It's an under represented 40%. Also, this 40% came during the time of pan-green turmoil. Of course, not everyone in pan-green is happy with DPP's performance, but the point is what kind of ideal they support is quite clear. The other 60% I think quite a lot of them just didn't see or know what kind of party KMT is, and a lot of them can be convinced at least on some issues to support pan green's cause. So I think for sure, many pan-green will feel despaired when in fact they might not have to because there are many others who have the similar ideology. The problem is...how to stop Ma with this support and how to alarm more people of the possible crisis.

No comments:

Post a Comment