Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Thoughts On Economy, Politics and CECA

Economy is a complex subject, and history has shown that a lot of times even economic experts can be very wrong. Still, it's an important subject worth studying and researching. I am not an expert, but still I have some "philosophical" thoughts on the economy. I might not be able to be very precise on term I use etc, but anyway, here it is.

To my knowledge, there were 2 common types of analogy of economy. One is that economy is like a machine, the other is that economy is like a force (wind, ocean waves etc). Fundamentally, I like the second analogy better. Therefore, often when the politicians say they are going to "fix" the economy I don't particular like it because they are obviously trying to run the economy like a machine, that's why the term "fix." I think it's might also be possible to add on to the force analogy. I think it's possible to think of the governments or corporations etc as sailing ships in the ocean...that has to live with, and utilize the surrounding economic forces.

One of the reason why Ma got elected in my opinion is the public illusion about the economy. He gave out target numbers that seems concrete but is actually illusive. It's like in the movie Water World, where the leaders of the "bad guys" rally them to roll the tanker, by promising "the land", without actually figuring out where exactly they are going.

Illusion comes from lack of understanding I think. Of course even myself don't have enough economic knowledge, but some basic understanding of it makes me extremely doubtful of what Ma said during election. And in my opinion, even if Ma somehow achieve those promises, there will be long lasting side effects that Taiwanese has to pay for later.

The recent CECA situation also shows once again KMT's attempt to use faulty concepts to fool the public. KMT always say "this is about economy, not politics." or "ping economy, not ping politics." These slogans seem to imply that economic and politics are complete separate entity that can be treated completely as separated matter. This is basically a blurring of concept. Most people would acknowledge that the government shouldn't regulate all economic activities, and politicians should not just listen to big corporations and getting too close to only the wealthy and powerful. Thus, the concept of separation of politics and economics of a sort is there and valid. However, what the KMT is saying is totally different from this. They are claiming that some treaty or policy is just about economics, and nothing to do with politics. But every treaty and policy has political elements in them, and have to be considered as such. That's where their thoughts start to become faulty.

Let's use an analogy: A wild animal sees food on the ground. What would be going on in its mind? One part of his brain would say "Go, grab the food." One part of his brain would say "Be careful, there might be predator still around, and that food might not be real food and could be a trap."

Now, Taiwan is like this wild animal. The potential food is like CECA. The part of the brain that suggests taking the food is like some of those big cooperation communities that favors CECA. They represent the economic side, or the greedy side of the brain. The part of the brain that suggests otherwise are the oppositions, consist of different sectors of the society. They represent mostly political side, and some economic side (the food might not be real, it could be poisoned etc...).

If the animal don't even think about the potential danger...it's a dumb and inexperienced animal. If it's alert and examine the food and the surrounding more carefully, it's a smart and experienced animal. Which type of animal would Taiwan want to be? KMT seems to like to rush in. They just ignore the political side of thing and charge in for the food, and cursing others who voice concern. They have failed many times before under CCP's trap, would Taiwan want to charge in with KMT?

It's better to be alert. Even if the food is real and we avoid it due to the potential hazard that we just can't bet our luck on, the only thing we lost is the food, and there are always other food around for us to take. If we don't be careful and just want to charge in Taiwan could loss its life.

Remember..."If something looks too good to be true, it probably is."

Not to mention...CCP is the one that put the "food" there...we all know CCP wants to eat us...and been eaten is always not desirable. Of course, KMT might think otherwise because a lot of their members seem to always want Taiwan to be the food of CCP.

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